The August 20 2026 OCR decision, in plain English.

The three scenarios we have pre-modelled

Scenario A · 25bp cut

If RBNZ cuts the OCR by 25 basis points, mortgage rates typically follow within 48 hours (variable immediately, fixed rates more gradually as the wholesale curve moves). Our pre-modelled call: refix to a 1-year or 2-year fix at the new market average, then reassess at the next decision.

Scenario B · Hold

If RBNZ holds, market reaction depends on the statement language more than the rate itself. Hawkish tone (suggesting cuts are paused) typically firms up fixed rates; dovish tone (suggesting more cuts to come) can soften them even without a rate move. Our pre-modelled call: watch the statement closely, treat the rate itself as a non-event.

Scenario C · 25bp hike

Unlikely in this cycle (RBNZ has been cutting since late 2024), but if it happens, expect a sharp fixed-rate response and broader risk-asset wobble. Our pre-modelled call: if you're inside 90 days of a refix, lock immediately at the pre-announcement rate; if longer than 90 days, wait for the spike to settle.

Who this matters most for

• Anyone with a fixed rate ending in the next 6 months
• First-home buyers who got conditional pre-approvals at a specific rate
• KiwiSaver members in funds with meaningful bond exposure (conservative and balanced)
• Anyone considering a refinance to a different lender

What goes here on the day

Within 2 hours of the August 20 decision, this page fills with: the actual OCR move, Craig's plain-English read on the statement, real-time tracking of which banks have repriced and how, a "what would I do?" call for each of the four common borrower situations, and a recommendation flowchart for whether to refix, float, or move banks.